Risk Disclaimer

1. Balauron is analytics, not advice

Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal or tax advice. Nothing here is a recommendation, an inducement, or a solicitation to buy, sell or hold anything.

The probabilities, prices, scores, rankings and statistics Balauron displays are descriptions of what markets and users have already done. They are not forecasts, and they are not guidance. If you act on them, you do so entirely on your own judgement and at your own risk. If you need advice, get it from someone licensed to give it.

2. We hold no funds and place no orders

Balauron is read-only and non-custodial. It never holds your money, never holds private keys, never touches an exchange account, and never places, routes or cancels an order. There is no deposit, no withdrawal, and no balance.

When you log a call on Balauron, nothing happens in any market. No position is opened. No money is at stake. You are recording a prediction so that it can be scored later — that is all.

3. Market data can be delayed, incomplete, or wrong

Balauron reads public data from third-party venues. That data can be delayed, can gap, can be revised, and can simply be incorrect. Our ingestion can fall behind or fail. A market's displayed probability may not match what you would actually be able to transact at, and prices you see here should never be treated as executable quotes.

We make no warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of anything displayed.

4. Probabilities and skill scores are estimates

Edge-vs-close, the Bayesian skill score, calibration figures and leaderboard rankings are statistical estimates computed from limited samples. They carry uncertainty, and that uncertainty is largest exactly where people care most — at the top of a leaderboard, and for anyone with few resolved calls.

The scoring model embeds deliberate choices: shrinking scores toward the mean when the sample is small, weighting down calls made near certainty, and requiring a minimum number of resolved calls before anyone is ranked. Reasonable people could make different choices and get different numbers. Treat the ranking as one opinion computed one way, not as a measurement of truth.

5. Past performance does not predict future results

A positive historical edge does not mean a user will have one tomorrow. Some apparent skill is luck that has not yet reverted, some is a real edge that will decay as markets adapt, and separating the two is precisely the hard problem Balauron only partially solves.

Copying another user's calls is not a strategy. It is a way of inheriting someone else's variance without their reasoning.

6. Prediction markets and your local law

The legal status of prediction markets and crypto trading differs by country, and in some places participation is restricted or prohibited. Balauron surfaces publicly available data about these markets; it does not offer access to them, and it is not available as a means of participating in them.

Whether you may lawfully trade on any venue mentioned here is your responsibility to determine. Balauron makes no representation that any venue, market or instrument is lawful or appropriate for you.

7. Third-party links and venues

Where Balauron names or links to a third-party venue, that is attribution and context — not endorsement, not partnership, and not a referral. We receive no commission, run no affiliate links, and have no commercial relationship with the venues whose public data we read. We are not responsible for their content, their terms, or your dealings with them.

8. Questions

If anything on this page is unclear, or if you think Balauron is displaying something in a way that could mislead, tell us: [email protected]. We would rather fix a misleading chart than defend it.

See also the Terms & Conditions.